Subject: Re: OT Grantham Sounding AI Alarm
and a lot of people will feel less rich.
...
Hold a broad-based index of non-U.S. equities...
On the subject of the relationship between those shamelessly context free snippets:
One thing that is quite interesting about current conditions compared to previous cycles is the extent to which ex-US investors are "all in" on US equities. 70% of all money raised by the global asset management industries has been going into the US. We (the "foreigners") collectively own about $22tn worth of US shares, triple the level a decade ago. This time around, should there be a market "accident" in the US, it will smack people (and retirement funds, and governments) worldwide very much more than in past episodes.
I don't know where the top will be, but there have been many interesting developments in markets lately. It seems that, rather than narrowing as it typical at a market top, the fun has been spreading in places. The latest 20% pop in essentially all big Nasdaq stocks in the last 3 months is quite remarkable. The equal-weight S&P hit an all time high on Thursday, and the equal weight Nasdaq 100 hit a new all time high Tuesday last week, both much more recently than their kinda-cap-weight equivalents. So, though I don't know what will happen, what seems most likely is that the party will not end very soon, but when it ends it will be one for the ages.
Jim
(still about 2/3 cash, though some of that is backing some derivatives)