Subject: Re: considering coat tailing OXY
you can't see out that far

To look out far you need a moat as well as an ecosystem for the business to build upon. That's just the prerequisite. Then you monitor over time if the moat and the ecosystem still hold. Those should be properly reflected in consistently high ROE and earning growth. Think about the business in the context of future opportunities and challenges, and whether the executives' perspectives are honest and sensible. Never sell if all continue to look good.