Subject: Re: Harris Wins
There might be (a war). China shows no sign of backing down, and we are obligated by treaty to intervene on the Philippines' behalf. Plus it's just the right thing to do (i.e. China does NOT own the entirety of the South China Sea no matter how much they say they do).

If things don't improve, I expect shots to be fired by the end of next year. And I see no avenue in which Xi can back down and save "face" (very important to Chinese culture).

I don't expect anything but scuffles. What might happen is China takes the small areas on the Chinese mainland that Taiwan claims now. War with the USA on the other side would not be a smart move. I think the strategy is continued scuffles and China will do small things, just enough to not cause a war.