Subject: Re: BN versus BAM

Nevertheless, I think their Achilles' heel is a relentlessly self-promotional messaging culture that robs them of credibility in the markets. Can Brookfield be trusted to start lowering target carry levels in time to alert investors to their vulnerabilities? I would not bet on it.

I agree. In the 2022, and if I remember correctly, in the 2021 investor day presentations, they did bring projections from 2017 and 2016 respectively. Of course the actuals compared favorably to the estimates. I hope they continue to hold themselves accountable in this way in future investor day presentations.

Determine net invested capital using IFRS values for private holdings and market values for listed subs, make any idiosyncratic adjustments you feel appropriate (as for BPG), then use the market multiple assigned the new BAM for FRE. Let carry be the gravy that allows Brookfield to under promise and overdeliver, once the mantra of value managers.

Okay. Taking Blended Invested Capital and giving the BPG (IFRS) a 50% haircut gives 37,562 million. 75% of BAM at 29 per share is 35,494 million. Adding the two, per above valuation method, gives a fair market cap of 73,056 million for BN which equates to 44.67 per share.

Current BN price of 31.50 is a 29.49% discount to even the most conservative valuation method. Comparing to Plan Value results in an even more absurd gap. How can this be? What are we missing?

In any case, it's best not to make big moves. Nobody knows what the future holds, but more likely than not, the market won't soar next year. Caution has replaced FOMO in the market. So, whether buying or selling, DCA over time seems to be reasonable strategy and should work out okay. Not just financially, but also result in less mental stress.