Subject: Re: FKA : TSLA
I don't know, but it may just be a regulatory thing - they have to show it's safe first, even if the company thinks it is safe. If they are right, then the geofencing and the monitoring can disappear, no harm done.

As I understand it, Texas has a very favorable regulatory climate in regards to AV ride hailing. There is no special permitting required as long as the AV complies with traffic and safety rules.

I think this is too pessimistic. If FSD works, it will work for Cybercabs, but it will also work for all the other Tesla cars, so there will be a big base right off the bat, and then of course there will be massive sales increases (and, probably, margin increases) for regular Tesla cars which people will want to own because of FSD. But it is a very complicated thing to analyze, as FSD would bring a whole series of social consequences that are hard to foresee, like maybe people getting rid of their second car and using other people's Teslas with ride sharing, or using Teslas instead of public transportation, etc. etc. I can't predict how it will all work out, but it's potentially a technology that gives Tesla tremendous options.

Yes...but Tesla has said they want full control over the entire Cybercab operation, from owning the fleet, to summoning a ride in the Tesla app, to vehicle dispatch, routing, and payment. It doesn't take a lot of imagination to see there is big potential upside here. But if any Tesla could be used for ridesharing, then it actually competes with the cybercab business.


Bottom line, I think your arguments are fine, just as good as mine, but in investing we should try not to commit to one idea and stick to it come hell or high water. I am sure Tesla does not pass Buffett's rule 1 - but I am equally sure you can't count it out, and I think some of the negativity around Musk and around the company's recent sales results (which are themselves partly because of Musk's public image) may be obscuring just how close Tesla is to making a big breakthrough.

That's why I'm a "not bull." Tesla could well have some big hits, and it might be fine without any big hits. But it is already priced as if it will have some big hits.