Subject: Re: OT Cash balances keep soaring
There is no way to a survive the end of the world.

I wasn't referring to an "end of the world" scenario. A perfect example would be 1987, many of the timing methods would have caused an investor to [mostly] exit equities after black Monday. Now had the investor been relatively young at that time (as I was) then they wouldn't have been hurt too much by that, but if the investor were recently retired, they would have been mortally wounded by that timing action and it would affect their financial health for the rest of the life.

There is plenty of evidence & claims that big sharp drops are like potholes that recover pretty quickly.

This is very true. Just look at any long-term chart and it becomes obvious. That's why a timing method that could potentially get you out at the wrong time (once every 50 or 75 years) is risky.

For actual bear markets, they start slowly and give you plenty of time to get out.

I agree, most bear markets start slowly. But some of them (about once every 50 or 75 years) do not start slowly.

It is once you get down to looking at around 5-10 years of life expectancy that it is reasonable to be hyper sensitive to bear markets. Because you may not live long enough to recover from the bear.

That's yet another good reason to begin social security at 70. In my case, they tell me that if I wait till 70, they will give me $4800/mo, and my wife will get about $2400/mo. Even if we spend (or lose) every penny of our retirement savings, we can still live reasonably on $7200 a month (inflation adjusted, of course).

The secret to ride out this is to have a large large portfolio, so that even a 25%-35% drop won't change your standard of living.

It's no secret! It's called retiring 5 1/2 years later. Yet another one of those trade-offs that life gives us.