Subject: Re: Spy down another 4 percent,
"I'm not Jim, but this has the earmarks of a correction and not the beginning of a bear market."

Can it not be both? Starts with the correction, ends with the bear market for a long time. Posted 04/07/2025 11:41 PM


No, not generally.

A bull market ends when there are no more buyers remaining. For the first 1/3 of the bear there are only people gradually selling.

A sharp drop is people selling in a panic. That's trading on emotion, and emotions are fickle so they can turn on a dime and buy again almost as quickly.

I am writing this on 4/8/25, 30 minutes after market open.
Headlines from finance-yahoo:
* Dow jumps over 1,000 points as stocks make bid for rebound
* Nvidia leads Magnificent 7 rebound
* S&P 500 opens 3.4% higher
* Dow 30 +1300 (+3.4%)
* Nasdaq +619 (+3.97%)
* BRK-B +21.57 (+4.3%)
* QQQ +17.14 (+4.05%)

This is emotional buying.


"Trump has just reduced the future earnings of every single company in the world."

Here's another thing: In stock market news, the reasons that the talking heads give for a market move are almost always wrong and have no bearing. The fact of the move is right, but the reason is not.
post hoc ergo propter hoc