Subject: Re: Warren & Greg on CNBC tomorrow
"Buffett did say that many of his business managers were reporting that their businesses were not doing as well as they had expected six months ago, with the exception of GEICO and the utilities. I take this as a near term caution on the economy, stocks and Berkshire."

From yesterday's interview:

"BECKY QUICK: Warren, let me just ask you about the economy. We have heard recently from Jamie Dimon in his annual letter at JP Morgan, he says, 'A recession is much more likely now.' Janet Yellen was just speaking I think in the last 24 hours, although it's hard to track from here when things are happening, has just said in the last 24 hours I think that, 'The U.S. is in better shape now than it was six months ago.' Which of those camps would you put yourself in?

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I know what a lot of different businesses are doing. And I just got report from one of them that happens to be in the retail-related business. And in any event, you know, it was -22% in February from a year ago.

BECKY QUICK: In sales?

WARREN BUFFETT: They didn't think that was going to happen.

BECKY QUICK: Sales, you mean or in profit?

WARREN BUFFETT: In sales. Profits are down a lot more than that. On the other hand, some of our businesses are still doing fine, but they all are reporting that the new, you know, some of them are living off of orders that were placed months earlier, and that sort of thing. But it's a tougher world out there in a great many businesses. Not in the insurance business. Insurance business should be better this year than last year. That doesn't mean it will be because we can't predict how everything happens. But on a probability basis, it should be better than last year. And the railroad business is down in carloads carried. I mean, it isn't dramatic and, of course, we've got a utility business and that doesn't read very much with things. So but overall, I think people that run our businesses that do have any sensitivity to the economy are surprised at where they are now compared to where they felt they were going to be six months ago. That doesn't mean the world is coming to an end or anything because ' 58 years I've been running Berkshire, I mean, we've run into all kinds of problems. But that's what business is about. And we run our business so that we don't depend on everything being hunky-dory always. We run it so that we will be the last man standing. And that's the way, if millions of people are going to give me their money and tell me to take care of it, we're going to try and take care of it. And if we don't make as much money as we might've if we'd leveraged more or done other policies, so be it.

BECKY QUICK: But you think a recession is more likely now than maybe you would have said six months ago?

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I think most of our management would say that they are surprised at where they are now, compared to how they thought they were going to feel six months ago at this point."

So, not everything "hunky-dory" at Berkshire.

Full transcript of interview:

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/1...