Subject: Re: Berkshire's stock price
' I started out in 2012 at $78-80 so there must have been a 4 year flat stretch! ' blackswanny , since you became a partner in 2012, I can give you some material history from my notes. Buffett wrote the donation letter in 2006 to the Gates Foundation. You should read it. NOTE,Buffett stipulates that the agreement is, irrevocably committed , a huge mistake. I have no idea if the agreement allows Buffett to cancel based on, poor behavior, or for any other reason? Buffett loves Melinda too so I'm sure they, worked it out like adults. Around 2008 I started to post my FSFE, posts on the Fools board. Foundation Sales Forever Effect and the moves Buffett should make to increase demand for brk common, to help absorb the selling from Buffett and other old timers who had 100s of millions and billions of brk that would have to be sold as partners passed etc. When I suggested a 50 for 1 stock split to increase the liquidity required to be included into the major indexes, of course I was attacked by others. Jan 2010 Brk announced the 50 for 1 split. Brk was added to the spy 3/ 2010. Rk was added to other indexes in 6/2010. March 2010 was the Sokol gate disaster, brk dropped from 85 to 75 in that time period. Sept 2011, brk finally authorized a buyback. The stock rose 5.7 to 72 on the news on 15 million shs. However, he stipulated he wouldn't buy back stock above 1.1 xs BV. That was the give away, imo, Buffett had little interest in actually buying back shares. He finally got tired of watching his life's work sold off via the foundations near BV. The 1.1 limit made sure the stock traded above the price buffett would pay, hence the foundations received ten percent or more from their sales. 12/2012 , Buffett realized he could goose the stock again, by raising the buyback limit to 1.2 xs BV, and be expected to buyback very few shares. He had several opportunities to buyback below 1.2 xs BV but he was never really that motivated. Raising the limit raised the stock 2.25 that day to 89.50. Recently he finally agreed to buyback at, material discounts to IV. In 2009 or so I argued that buybacks above BV, were dilutive to BV, but, accretive to IV, therefore IV should be the hurdle. Buffett said he and munger were consistently within 5 percent of each other on their IV estimates. That was good enough for most of us. Buffett never had an interest in buying back brk shs, he used those buyback limits to goose the stock, imo. Now you see why I was attacked, vilified, and cancelled back then, no one agreed with me. I even received email threats, that I saved, to stop posting my, crazy ideas questioning Buffett, I'm serious. If you have the searching skills to go back to the fools board 2008 to 2011 you might read some interesting posts. The good old days, Jim was there, rational walk, David Rolfe, toddfinances, dividends, webrules, salty, hbird, beach Laywer , and many other fine people. That should get you up to date, plus those are my opinions of buffetts true intentions, I have no idea if any old timers agree with me even today? Take care and good luck, partner. Btw, I'm not proof reading this, which is scary, I gotta go. Peace.