Subject: OT (not really): Secular cycles
May I ask the Pro´s with decade long experience: How does a secular bear market unfolds in your experience?

I ask because I think it finally happens what has to happen at some point. That after many years of markets getting more and more expensive a return to the mean comes, probably with the pendulum swinging too much in the other direction, markets exaggerating again.

The signs/indicators I wrote about here or on the MI board: S&P/Nasdaq did cross 125&200 SMA downwards. Looking at a 1 year or longer chart you see the "rounded top" Jim talked about.

Very especially the most hyped and expensive stocks are affected, all Mag 7, e.g. Meta in "freefall".

Additionally contrary to since 1 year now it seems even Berkshire is seen less as safe haven. For 1 year on days the Indizes were down Berkshire quite reliably was up. This connection seems to become weaker (remains to be seen; this is just an observation based on the last days).

I want to know what history has to say about the future developments in the different areas of the market in case I am correct. When it´s too late to increase already existing short exposure (since a few weeks I am short all Mag 7 apart from Apple, but am hesitant to increase that as I´d have to pay now much more to buy more of those puts)? What areas will go down fastest and furthest (The most hyped ones probably)?

Etc. etc. All I know is what Jim said about recovery afterwards, that the worst stocks recovers first (What are the worst then? The Mag 7, as they then would have performed worst?).

I could ask this question on the MI board, but would probably get answers which focus more on the short term: "Market is oversold -> reaction upwards", "Extreme fear -> points to reaction upwards".

I am interested in the secular cycle instead, in what will happen if those longterm waves or still intact and we are over the top of one. And that is rather a question for the veterans here with 40, 50 or more years of experience.


P.S: I try carefully to sign a new thread as "OT" when not about Berkshire. I am not sure here as my question is very general but affects Berkshire too.