Subject: Dying Bullish Euphoria - A Paratest
I ran some tests that I thought the group may find interesting. My software has the ability to paratest multiple parameters similar to GTR1. I tested the Dying Bullish Euphoria using two indexes as the basis of the signals, and fourteen indexes for the returns off of these two indexes. The two indexes for producing the signals was NDX100 and the S&P 500.
Here are the indexes
Symbol Index
^XCI Amex Computer
^NDX Nasdaq 100 Index
^PSE Tech: Pse Tech
^IXIC Nasdaq Composite
^IXID Nas - Nms Industrial
^XII Institutional Ndx
^OEX S&P 100
^RUI Russell 1000
^RUA Russell 3000
^GSPC S&P 500
^XAX Amex Composite
^IXFN Nas - Nms Financial
^MID S&P Mid Caps
^DJI Dow Jones Industrial Average
Period Tested
1/1/1990 to 2/14/2026
Indexes for Producing Signals
1. Nasdaq 100 (NDX100)
2. S&P 500 (^GSPC)
Lookback Days Tested
90 to 120
Average of All Indexes for Each Lookback Period
CAGR CAGR DD DD
Lookback Days NDX100 SP500 NDX100 SP500
90 8.95% 11.04% -57.69% -61.06%
91 9.02% 11.03% -57.13% -58.96%
92 8.37% 11.27% -62.50% -58.73%
93 8.63% 11.96% -59.63% -48.13%
94 9.21% 11.31% -55.80% -45.31%
95 9.05% 11.50% -57.02% -46.20%
96 9.28% 11.82% -55.87% -49.09%
97 9.25% 11.32% -58.45% -46.95%
98 9.34% 11.52% -58.00% -46.04%
99 8.77% 11.48% -61.92% -45.96%
100 8.51% 11.54% -66.18% -47.18%
101 9.80% 11.58% -59.30% -44.97%
102 9.51% 11.66% -58.91% -44.93%
103 9.98% 11.71% -56.12% -45.86%
104 9.95% 11.27% -56.77% -45.64%
105 9.95% 11.53% -57.04% -44.07%
106 12.20% 11.46% -39.12% -45.70%
107 12.20% 12.06% -38.63% -49.28%
108 12.34% 11.73% -38.70% -45.46%
109 12.94% 11.36% -38.58% -48.71%
110 12.99% 11.56% -38.56% -51.71%
111 13.20% 11.59% -38.82% -42.00%
112 13.37% 11.81% -38.98% -41.40%
113 13.33% 11.72% -38.84% -44.31%
114 13.28% 11.59% -38.24% -43.41%
115 12.84% 11.89% -38.91% -40.63%
116 13.02% 11.79% -38.71% -41.78%
117 13.14% 11.77% -39.20% -40.50%
118 12.86% 12.05% -39.54% -38.72%
119 12.82% 11.97% -38.62% -39.18%
120 12.84% 11.70% -38.75% -41.35%
https://www.zeelotes.org/DBE_9...
This should explain why I use a longer lookback. Using the NDX100 to produce the signals significantly improves on the returns no matter which index you use for actual investing.
Max - Min - Average Compared to LTBH
LTBH NDX100 NDX100 NDX100 NDX100 SP500 SP500 SP500 SP500
Test Results ROI CAGR GSD Sharpe DDD3 BBW Drawdown Max Min Average DD Avg Max Min Average DD Avg
LTBH ^XCI 15591.35% 14.95% 30.09 0.54 10.67% 1.5 -77.19% 18.84% 12.41% 15.85% -52.16% 16.21% 11.78% 14.59% -54.63%
LTBH ^NDX 11247.90% 13.93% 30.18 0.51 11.97% 1.26 -82.90% 18.30% 11.68% 15.23% -51.28% 16.83% 11.24% 14.61% -55.71%
LTBH ^PSE 14922.11% 14.82% 26.67 0.56 9.39% 1.69 -70.74% 17.05% 10.41% 13.98% -48.72% 15.63% 11.35% 14.16% -43.89%
LTBH ^IXIC 5046.76% 11.47% 25.98 0.45 11.17% 1.1 -77.93% 15.62% 9.86% 12.94% -51.16% 14.44% 9.68% 12.32% -54.99%
LTBH ^IXID 2703.63% 9.62% 25.03 0.38 10.73% 0.96 -69.36% 13.02% 7.24% 10.32% -53.44% 12.04% 7.03% 9.92% -56.20%
LTBH ^XII 1875.87% 8.57% 20.23 0.37 8.42% 1.09 -64.23% 12.38% 7.92% 10.36% -41.56% 11.35% 7.92% 9.88% -32.90%
LTBH ^OEX 1932.79% 8.66% 20.04 0.37 8.12% 1.14 -61.31% 12.28% 8.24% 10.44% -41.02% 11.15% 7.85% 9.88% -32.84%
LTBH ^RUI 1920.93% 8.64% 19.85 0.37 8.03% 1.15 -56.88% 11.83% 7.39% 9.72% -44.69% 10.71% 7.40% 9.39% -35.06%
LTBH ^RUA 1879.38% 8.58% 19.96 0.38 8.01% 1.15 -57.07% 11.70% 7.23% 9.52% -45.01% 10.54% 7.33% 9.25% -35.42%
LTBH ^GSPC 1837.05% 8.51% 19.78 0.37 7.91% 1.15 -56.78% 11.71% 7.47% 9.70% -43.70% 10.58% 7.38% 9.36% -34.28%
LTBH ^XAX 2228.07% 9.06% 19.13 0.37 7.74% 1.25 -54.41% 12.11% 6.43% 9.09% -60.76% 9.44% 7.16% 8.76% -59.07%
LTBH ^IXFN 2460.28% 9.35% 27.32 0.37 10.18% 0.99 -64.73% 11.52% 6.85% 9.29% -58.99% 10.86% 7.71% 9.31% -52.91%
LTBH ^MID 3169.43% 10.09% 22.01 0.42 7.29% 1.47 -56.32% 11.35% 6.11% 8.65% -51.92% 9.90% 6.80% 8.71% -42.72%
LTBH ^DJI 1627.14% 8.17% 18.89 0.35 6.72% 1.29 -53.78% 10.93% 6.65% 8.90% -42.28% 9.54% 6.83% 8.64% -37.09%
https://www.zeelotes.org/DBE_L...
The Top Twenty CAGR Returns for the NDX100 Signals
Test Results ROI CAGR GSD Sharpe DDD3 BBW Signal Drawdown Bullish Lookback Days Bearish Lookback Days
Para-Test #2 ^XCI 52327.66% 18.84% 25.87 0.75 5.24% 3.72 88% -38.93% 112 112
Para-Test #3 ^XCI 49642.29% 18.67% 26 0.73 5.45% 3.56 88% -39.52% 113 113
Para-Test #4 ^XCI 49198.72% 18.64% 25.98 0.73 5.36% 3.61 88% -36.38% 114 114
Para-Test #1 ^XCI 48430.80% 18.59% 25.92 0.74 5.19% 3.7 88% -38.22% 111 111
Para-Test #21 ^XCI 45916.21% 18.41% 25.91 0.73 5.37% 3.56 88% -36.37% 110 110
Para-Test #7 ^XCI 45341.72% 18.37% 25.75 0.73 5.55% 3.44 88% -34.92% 117 117
Para-Test #6 ^XCI 45015.87% 18.35% 25.64 0.73 5.64% 3.39 88% -34.44% 116 116
Para-Test #2 ^NDX 44376.07% 18.30% 25.33 0.73 4.78% 3.94 82% -35.74% 112 112
Para-Test #20 ^XCI 43511.16% 18.24% 25.97 0.73 5.40% 3.5 88% -37.72% 109 109
Para-Test #1 ^NDX 42155.17% 18.14% 25.37 0.73 4.72% 3.94 88% -35.74% 111 111
Para-Test #3 ^NDX 41599.30% 18.09% 25.46 0.72 5.13% 3.65 82% -37.60% 113 113
Para-Test #4 ^NDX 41173.82% 18.06% 25.48 0.71 4.80% 3.86 82% -36.36% 114 114
Para-Test #19 ^XCI 40144.22% 17.98% 25.92 0.73 5.57% 3.35 88% -38.41% 108 108
Para-Test #21 ^NDX 40031.34% 17.97% 25.38 0.72 4.78% 3.87 82% -35.74% 110 110
Para-Test #8 ^XCI 39138.54% 17.89% 25.84 0.71 5.96% 3.14 88% -35.62% 118 118
Para-Test #5 ^XCI 38921.14% 17.88% 26.02 0.7 6.06% 3.09 88% -38.77% 115 115
Para-Test #9 ^XCI 38286.82% 17.82% 25.75 0.71 5.75% 3.23 88% -35.11% 119 119
Para-Test #17 ^XCI 37911.06% 17.79% 26 0.72 5.77% 3.21 88% -38.36% 106 106
Para-Test #20 ^NDX 36942.06% 17.71% 25.46 0.71 4.97% 3.67 82% -35.74% 109 109
Para-Test #18 ^XCI 36357.40% 17.66% 26 0.71 5.67% 3.24 88% -36.45% 107 107
The Top Twenty CAGR Returns for the SP500 Signals
Test Results ROI CAGR GSD Sharpe DDD3 BBW Signal Drawdown Bullish Lookback Days Bearish Lookback Days
Para-Test #8 ^NDX 28128.88% 16.83% 25.31 0.67 6.18% 2.86 86% -38.43% 118 118
Para-Test #9 ^NDX 27252.61% 16.73% 25.28 0.66 6.25% 2.81 86% -39.59% 119 119
Para-Test #7 ^NDX 25682.85% 16.54% 25.35 0.66 6.67% 2.62 86% -43.27% 117 117
Para-Test #2 ^NDX 23742.35% 16.29% 25.25 0.65 6.81% 2.53 86% -44.51% 112 112
Para-Test #6 ^NDX 23756.56% 16.29% 25.42 0.65 7.00% 2.47 86% -45.29% 116 116
Para-Test #8 ^XCI 23147.88% 16.21% 25.88 0.64 7.05% 2.43 86% -43.36% 118 118
Para-Test #5 ^NDX 22960.69% 16.18% 25.37 0.64 6.96% 2.46 86% -45.06% 115 115
Para-Test #9 ^XCI 22693.76% 16.14% 25.89 0.64 7.04% 2.42 86% -44.25% 119 119
Para-Test #10 ^NDX 22034.62% 16.05% 25.34 0.64 6.73% 2.52 86% -43.98% 120 120
Para-Test #7 ^XCI 20390.04% 15.80% 25.92 0.63 7.53% 2.23 93% -48.40% 117 117
Para-Test #14 ^XCI 19719.92% 15.70% 26.93 0.61 6.21% 2.64 82% -56.05% 103 103
Para-Test #6 ^XCI 19537.97% 15.67% 25.99 0.62 7.82% 2.13 93% -50.27% 116 116
Para-Test #5 ^XCI 19372.93% 15.64% 25.95 0.62 7.62% 2.18 93% -49.62% 115 115
Para-Test #2 ^PSE 19295.91% 15.63% 23.47 0.64 6.40% 2.58 93% -35.80% 112 112
Para-Test #13 ^XCI 19093.26% 15.59% 27.01 0.61 6.32% 2.59 82% -56.64% 102 102
Para-Test #1 ^NDX 18840.95% 15.55% 25.37 0.62 7.57% 2.19 86% -47.85% 111 111
Para-Test #2 ^XCI 18636.30% 15.52% 25.82 0.62 7.26% 2.27 93% -48.92% 112 112
Para-Test #12 ^XCI 18428.98% 15.48% 26.99 0.6 6.32% 2.57 82% -56.88% 101 101
Para-Test #3 ^NDX 18423.77% 15.48% 25.42 0.62 7.66% 2.15 86% -50.04% 113 113
Para-Test #10 ^XCI 17939.57% 15.40% 25.98 0.61 7.61% 2.15 86% -48.79% 120 120
The average of the top twenty for NDX100 is 18.17%, and for the S&P 500 it is 15.94%. Averaging the ROI instead is 42,514% for the NDX100 and 21,453% for the S&P 500.... almost exactly half!