Subject: Re: Chickenhawk Don’s Desperate Gamble...
By simply declaring it so. Our objective was to blow up their missiles and their navy, after all. No one said anything about preventing Iran from seizing the Strait of Hormuz. So we won the war! Keeping them from seizing the strait, or reclaiming it, wasn't part of what we defined the war to be. We won the hard part, which was dropping bombs and launching missiles. If other countries care about minor details like Iran seizing some of the most strategically important territory on earth, then they should come in and do the easy work of....well, probably seizing a hundred miles of defended mountainous coastline with ground troops.

Following up on my own post, the Administration's messaging today is really starting to indicate that this is the path they'll take. Rubio and Hegseth are echoing his suggestion that we'll abandon the war against Iran even though they still hold the Strait, hoping that someone else will come in and win the fight that we weren't prepared to.

It will be very interesting to see if his voters follow along and agree that this constitutes "victory." Seizing the strait actually increases Iran's ability to foment problems and exert power within the region - and there's a decent argument that it might even outweigh the losses in their missile program (which are likely to be temporary anyway). And now that they have it, it will be difficult to wrest it back from them. Which is probably why the Administration is considering just...not doing that. Because aerial attacks from a distance using bombs and missiles is one thing, but bringing our ships and troops within a few dozen miles of shore is a whole other matter.

If it looks like the MAGA base is buying the idea that this isn't a "win the battles but lose the war" situation, and accept Trump's decision to simply declare victory and quit, it seems likely he'll take do exactly that. Leave Iran in control of the strait, with no change to their nuclear program from the start of the war, still having a sizable number of missiles and a brand new revenue stream to rebuild the parts of the program we blew up, and allowing the regime to continue (under new management, but still the same regime).