Subject: Re: Safe Retirement Withdrawal Rate for 2026
There are endless debates about withdrawal rates, but it boils down to:

1) If you want to make periodic withdrawals from your portfolio for 30 years you need to pick some number, and the most widely accepted number is 4% ... based on historical data, but the worst thing to happen (e.g. great depression) wasn't the worst thing to happen until it happened.

You cannot blindly go with any fixed number. The problem with the 4% is that on average the final portfolio value after 30 years is TWICE the starting balance. A significant number of times the final value is FOUR times the starting balance.

You could be spending a lot more money than 4% most of the time. Half the time you could safely take 6%.

But even at 4%, there is a possibility of running out of money.

All that means that you need to have a plan to vary the amount you withdraw. Might as well couple that with a larger withdrawal rate, if you don't want to be the richest person in the graveyard.

I like Guyton-Klinger method, but there are many others.