Subject: Re: Winning Looks a Lot Like Losing...
The most likely scenario is the seizing of Kharg island which will have ramifications on Iran's oil exports (which would drop to zero). Iran's partners won't like that either.

Why is that likely? It won't reopen the Strait - Kharg is at the "wrong end" for that to have any effect on Iran's ability to hit vessels trying to transit. And it will increase the economic pain to the global economy even further, since it not only will directly eliminate the only oil currently getting through the Strait (Iran's), but it would certainly lead Iran to strike at the energy infrastructure of other Gulf states. But perhaps worse, seizing Kharg would put U.S. servicemen within range of drones and short-range missile fire, which dramatically increases the risk of casualties to a degree not yet present in the war.

Again, to use the formulation from one of the other threads, Iran has shown itself willing and able to take a lot of punches (metaphorically). They're not like a schoolyard bully who runs away (or picks another victim) the moment you stand up to them. Seizing Kharg only makes sense if you're pretty sure that Iran would react to it by folding - that this will be the punch that causes them to give up, rather than use their leverage (the strait and their continued ability to strike regional energy assets) to fight back.