Subject: Re: Joe Walsh
They could have held out at least until the USSC order played out, or until the CR expired, as you pointed out. They didn’t. Why? I don’t buy “to end the suffering” because the expiration of ACA subsidies is going to hit a hell of a lot harder than the suspension of SNAP benefits. People will die. A lot of people.

They didn't wait because it will take several weeks for the USSC order to play out, and because air travel was on the verge of being a very immediate, very visible problem.

It wasn't a choice between opening the government now with no subsidies, or holding out and getting the ACA subsidies restored. It was a choice between opening the government now with no subsidies or opening the government later with no subsidies. Again, the problem with the Democrats' position was that the public just didn't blame the GOP enough for the shutdown. That fact is invisible to progressives, who mostly live in communities (IRL and virtual) where no one blamed the Democrats for the shutdown. But across the electorate, barely a third of voters blamed just the GOP for the shutdown. The overwhelming majority either blamed both parties or blamed the Democrats alone.

That's a better outcome than has historically been the case in shutdowns, but it's nowhere near enough for the GOP to face any real pressure to change course. Nor was it enough to affect Trump in the slightest. The GOP was going to be able to last as least as long in the shutdown as the Democrats. The GOP wasn't going to own the shutdown any more than the Democrats were.

The Democrats weren't trading off between the people who were suffering in the shutdown versus the people who will suffer with the ACA subsidy expiration. They had no path to stopping the latter from suffering. They could, however, stop the suffering of the people being hurt by the shutdown.