Subject: Re: Well, that's not great - preconditions editio
But the thing about Operation Rolling Thunder is that it didn't work. It failed. Sure - it killed a lot of people and caused a lot of damage. The tactical objectives of the bombing missions were achieved. But it didn't accomplish any of the strategic goals it was intended to deliver.

I was using Rolling Thunder as a foreshadowing. If you want to go to bombing as a means to force negotiations, then the proper analogy is Nixon's Christmas bombings of Hanoi in 1972. The North Vietnamese wouldn't negotiate at all and lo and behold after being visited by B-52s again...within a month a deal was struck.

But Iran can hold the strait hostage with short range missiles and drones that can be carted around in (and hidden in) something as small as a box truck. And they might not even need to do that - even the risk of Iranian action will keep most tanker companies (and their insurers) from sending any vessels through the strait without Iranian permission. Couple that with their continued ability to launch drones and medium-range missiles at the energy infrastructure elsewhere in the Gulf, and Iran has the ability to make life very unhappy for the global economy. And we can't stop them.

Hmm. Pretty tricky problem. What's an out of the box way to counter this?