Subject: Re: Speculating
Mungofitch:
So, here's a "risk free" way to make a one-time 12% return.

A little surprised at this.

I just looked at the ratios of BRK.B and RSP prices over the last 10 years.

Before August 12, 2024, that ratio had NEVER been above 2.6.

Since August 12,2024 to now, it has been above 2.6 45% of the time, but it has been about 5 months since it was that high.

Over the full 10 years, the average ratio is 2.12 with std dev 0.316, so a ratio of 2.6 is 1.5 standard deviations above average.

Why do you estimate the probability that BRK.B/RSP will behave the way it behaved for years before August 2024 at "0%"? I put 0% in quotes because you put risk free in quotes.

R:)