Subject: Re: Let’s See If This Pans Out for Putin
It is working. The Ukrainian defense is holding. Russia has failed to conquer the country or disable the formal Ukranian military. They are suffering a slow, grinding war of attrition on the front lines.


Sure. At what cost? How many civilians are you willing to get blown up along the way?

Why?

Because it's not working. Russia is adept enough at evading sanctions and fielding weapons that they're still able to make progress on the battlefield.

Meanwhile, the West keeps feeding munitions into the fight and is draining its war stocks at a rapid rate.

You guys are forgetting that this grand strategy has the cost of wrecking Ukraine.

Ukraine winning and keeping Russia from keeping the lands they stole by conquest will take a long time and will come with a terrible cost

And yet, upthread you noted that you're unwilling to put the kind of economic pain to Russia that would end the war and you're not willing to add western firepower directly into the conflict, both things that would deliver a knockout punch to Putin.

Why not? If you're that convicted that Russia needs to pay for this, then why aren't you willing to take the actions that get them there? If you're concerned about a wider conflict, then welcome to the "Best of bad options club" that I'm a member of.

It's not. Ukraine is no more a "fine powder" than Russia is.

So the war isn't having a profoundly negative effect on the Ukrainian people?

The status quo is horrible, but the alternative really is "just give up" - unless Russia comes to the table willing to withdraw. If Russia comes to the table with "let us keep all or most of what we stole," then Ukraine cannot and should not ever accept that.

You're viewing this through too small of a lens.
A cease-fire now lets the Ukrainians rest, heal and more importantly, rearm.