Subject: Re: A mechanical strategy
WOW - Just WOW! My cognitive faculties have clearly gone for a toss!
Or in this case I choose to BLAME it on this guy's clumsiness in explaining the strategy :)
Third time lucky perhaps - actually the 2nd attempt was basically correct.
Here's the updated formula for the Buy and Sell sides
Buy Side = P[i-1]* ( Theta - Alpha1 + Theta*Alpha1)
Sell Side =P[i-1] * ( Theta - Alpha2 - Theta*Alpha2)
And as I thought thru the guys' examples - and in the scenario where theta = alpha ie the Drop in index is equal to the chosen threshold
you will see that the System basically leaves you to do almost nothing - ie for all practical purposes it tries to maintain a parity
of invested $ to 50% of Portfolio * ( 1- Alpha) ie drop threshold.
So in essence its a 50:50 ish strategy based on initial $ with 50% sitting in cash all the time!!
This is CRAZY - so Starts matter A LOT - ie it needs a few bears at the beginning to even hold a chance!
Honestly - I wouldn't even waste time on this if I am right this go around( I am SINCERELY HOPING I am)
Best