Subject: Will the US oils dominate in Venezuela?
The Pirate King says US big oil will exploit the daylights out of Venezuela, the exact same thing Bush claimed would happen in Iraq. Big oil CEOs seem to be a bit less enthusiastic about Venezuela.

So, what happened in Iraq, after the US tore up all the oil contracts that Saddam had negotiated, so the leases could be auctioned again, with US companies participating. These days, the dominate players are China, Russia, and a smattering of EU companies.

I asked the net sifter how and when the Chinese became the biggest player in Iraq.

Chinese companies began dominating Iraq's oil industry after 2009, capitalizing on low-risk, high-return deals after Western firms shied away from instability, securing major stakes in fields like Rumaila and Ahdab through early contracts and ongoing aggressive bidding, eventually managing over two-thirds of Iraq's oil output by the mid-2020s. Their "do-more-with-less" approach, focusing on service contracts over reserve rights and offering significant capital, made them preferred partners, diverging from Western supermajors' reluctance.

How China Gained Dominance

Early Entry & Debt Relief: China was an early entrant post-2003, offering significant debt relief to Iraq in 2007, paving the way for oil deals, notes Kalam (Chatham House) and The Jamestown Foundation.

Strategic Bidding: Chinese firms secured large contracts, like CNPC's stake in the Rumaila field (2009) and the Ahdab field, often winning bids where Western companies showed little interest, say Amwaj.media and Atlantic Council.

Favorable Terms: Unlike Western firms needing to satisfy shareholders with reserve growth, Chinese companies accepted service contracts with low per-barrel fees, focusing on quick, practical implementation, explains The New York Times.

Political Favor: Iraq's government saw China as a stable, non-intrusive partner, diversifying away from the U.S. and creating mutually beneficial profits, notes Clingendael and American University

Key Timelines

2006-2008: Initial welcome for Chinese firms, with oil minister visits and renegotiations of Saddam-era deals.

2009: Landmark deal for CNPC at Rumaila, marking a significant shift, reports Amwaj.media and Semafor.

2019: Chinese investment in Iraq exceeded $20 billion, with major contracts in oil, services, and power, say Manara Magazine and Middle East Institute.

2024: Chinese firms dominated new oil and gas block auctions, solidifying their leadership, according to Atlantic Council and American University.

Iraqi production, which, before the war, was restricted by UN sanctions, has soared, since 2010, now running over 4Mbpd. Presumably, the Pirate King will expropriate Chinese interests in Venezuela, and offer the fields to US companies. But, what if, as suggested before, the objective is chaos, to interrupt production, to raise the price of US produced oil?

Steve