Subject: Re: BRK.b 1.674 x book
Buffett calls that picking up nickels in from of steamrollers.

Well, I believe that phrase is reserved for situations where something Very Bad happens once in a while. For example, shorting the VIX regularly (writing call options, say) will make money probably 99 times out of a hundred, but lose you 1000 times your usual bet that last time. Last, because you're unlikely to try that again.

If you buy back into Berkshire after a while at a similar price rather than making some improvement to your breakeven, it's not exactly a steamroller situation. More of a toe stub.

For example (not that I recommend this specifically) say you sold the stock today, and decided to buy it back next time it was trading at 1.4 times last known book. That's the average in the last decade, so it seems very close to certain that will be trading under that again some day. About half the time, if the range stays about the same.

The price today is a rather impressive $619000, maybe roughly 1.6 times a guess for known book next week. So, if it dropped to your target immediately, you'd make about 12.5%. Let's say value typically rises at around inflation + 7%/year. Ignoring the fact that known book rises only quarterly, you'd have a price improvement if it hits 1.4 times book within the 20 months or so, and presumably a small loss if it takes longer than that. To lose 10%, hardly a steamroller, you'd probably have to have waited ~3 years for your orbital re-entry.

Jim