Subject: Re: BYD financial statements review
Two solid points both negative which is appreciated. Food for thought.
Yes, running a factory with western workers might be a little different. They better have a lot of automation and accept less from workers.
Un-investable jurisdiction. I struggle with accepting this and probably have a bias working against me. I know you are probably right. But I find it hard to accept Munger is wrong about China. Chinese companies are cheap and strong. I also like having some assets outside of the West - uncorrelated risk.
My small position size is comforting.
Thinking about having almost everything invested in US, which I imagine is typical for many and what has happened since 1924. The US has been an incredible system for capitalist. Very far from optimal but compared to most other parts of the world.
When you consider that clip of Buffett, showing a journalist, his news cutting he keeps on his wall, just outside his office, of the wild events that rocked financial markets over the last 100 years. 90% drawdown from 29 to 32; two world wars; JFK; oil crisis and brutal 73/74; 87; 98 Asian crisis; dot com bust; 07/08 GFC; 2020 pandemic. Good and bad things are going to happen over the next 20 to 50 years is a certainty.
Where we are now:
2 trillion of crypto vapour; extreme gov deficits at a time of high employment;
high multiples, high profit margins;
unhappy people;
major superpower tensions
and risks I’m not even aware of that could cause all kinds of things.
I don’t see a lot of harm owning a small amount in China. Never bet against America but in an uncertain world, some insurance is maybe not a bad thing.