Subject: Re: Bear Case

This is extremely well said -- I've been on the fence for a very long time as a result although I'm feeling very tempted.

My "not downside" downside is that at 19x earnings (5.2% earnings yield) + 1-2% growth, I think a sleepy return of 6-7% is achievable. This certainly feels better than 4% in money markets at a much more tax advantaged rate. I can't help but wonder if Buffett felt similarly about Apple during his purchases. Limited innovation but a sticky user base with some reasonable (albeit limited) pricing power.

Of course, a "downside downside" would represent a reversion to 2022/2023 levels of financials and a 30% to 50% drop in market cap due to the downward spiral of multiple compression and earnings drops. Of course, if I can't stomach that possibility, I deserve the 4% in money markets.

Hah!