Subject: any evidence that dem candidate matters?
i see little evidence that there is anything other than

a. anti-biden vote (other than diehard MAGA that would not turn out w/out cult of trump)
b. anti-trump vote (to clarify, this swamps any enthusiasm for candidate xyz. even obama had\needed a substantial headstart to displace the usual suspects.)

and yes, there is reason to believe the marginal voter will be needed to balance the electoral college nonsense.
but it seems impossible to pin down what will determine that with any confidence.

(furthermore, weak evidence that even ~30% of registered independents are ACTUALLY independents\undecided that will vote)

as is, it remains a race of the permanently demented against the sporadically delusional, with the public unable to comprehend it will be surrounding teams that matter exponentially as 4 more years pass.