Subject: Re: Clearing the Board for May
I've actually used this board as a significant sentiment indicator. It's been flashing an aggressive buy signal ... we have, by my thinking, hit maximum bearishness.

Interesting and ballsy call.

The AAII sentiment survey had one of its highest 'bearish' readings in history in early April, at 61.9%, and the most recent one is still very, very high at 55.6%, as it has been all month.

It understand the value of looking at this data as contrary indicators, but it just doesn't compute for me that this has been and still is a great buying opportunity.

I'm one of the sheep who sold some stuff as the market was dropping. I maybe/probably should have immediately made the trade I was planning to do: switch from the mostly large cap stuff I sold (plus one small cap that had gotten disproportionately large in my portfolio) to a small-cap value index, or similar.

I think a lot of people are waiting on the other shoe to drop ... is Trump going to declare victory on tariffs and rationalize them at something like a 10% baseline, with a rational schedule of exemptions and items/countries with higher tariffs? Or is he going to continue to punish the markets with large irrational tariffs, and will things cascade lower when the national news starts reflecting data of swelling unemployment and plummeting profits.

Even if he does rationalize to some extent, I expect there is going to be big time economic impact dragging those numbers the wrong way from his disruption of government and government funding along with the tariffs.

I'm thinking of selling more if this bounce continues.

I think the panic reflected in those near record high numbers early in the month was entirely justified, but Trump quickly removed the biggest cause of panic: his "reciprocal" tariffs. And the market skyrocketed. But, the ongoing damage is immense and I think the bulls are buying on hope, not what is likely to happen.