Subject: Re: OT: S&P versus T-Bills?
I would be cautious in calling this an "excellent call" ; returns since March 2022 (when QQQE last traded at 70ish)
QQQE +28%
QQQ +53%

I guess my point was, and remains, that QQQE tracks what amounts to a sector, quite well. It's sufficiently diversified that you can make trending macro-type predictions about it with some moderate amount of confidence. The average earnings trend remarkably well.

The returns of QQQ are best thought of as the sum of (a) the returns of QQQE, plus or minus (b) a gigantic random number for how a tiny number of firms have done lately, which is totally unpredictable. (it isn't even cap weighted, nor do the weights make any sense).

True, the random number has been positive lately. But the fact that QQQ has done better than QQQE lately is a fluke. It might continue, it might not. One can't say without doing a deep (and correct) analysis of the future of about five firms. If you can do that, buy them, don't buy QQQ.

The fact that QQQE is doing well was, and remains, pretty predictable over the long haul. It's currently a little more expensive than historically usual, but not all that much. The current valuation level of QQQ is Heisenbergian, so no comment.

So...was QQQE an excellent call? I think it was, in the narrow sense that a "good bet" is not the same as a "winning bet". A good bet might win or lose, but will probably win. A merely winning bet, on the other hand, might have been purely luck. That's how I would characterize QQQ has been in this stretch. I could give you a pretty good estimate of the likely returns of QQQE in the next 5-10 years. I don't think there's anyone on the planet could say the same for QQQ.

Jim