Subject: Re: OT mostly: forevers
I have a portfolio of what most older investors would say is forever, maybe even almost an ideal one for such terminology. But I'm far-far-FAR less inclined to believe things like Costco, Apple, or even Walmart as priced today are going to be a high percentage fulfill-er of superior returns for those who might inherit or get what I hand down. I write that because literally years out something is likely to happen that limits earnings growth such that way back (that's today) it was simply not the thing or future beater we would think or would have thought it to be.

Do I think my ideal portfolio today will do ok? Yes I do. But while things like the hard asset types like the aggregates, the builders supply (duopoly), the waste handlers, the big retailers, and whatnot are in process of getting very popular...outrageously popular...others such as the exchanges, insurance brokers, softwares are beginning to waffle around with AI concerns. There will be concerns one day for the others too even the hard asset onesd, concerns that we'd have never thought of somewhat like the fires to the utilities, maybe environmental to the waste handlers for instance. But the real things to worry over are always not yet known. That's why valuation in the longer run is so important.

Change can be very surprising. I've been literally amazed that the insurance brokers and payments bunch (especially credit card related) have been able to hold up as they have - I don't think either business model is going to be anywhere as good going forward as in the past. And I consider the current crypto obsession Bitcoin to be so damn technologically antiquated that it deserves a "fossil" designation, maybe one for the museum or something.

Change is coming hard and it is going to be fast. The popular worry today is software/AI stuff but that just screams to me that we aren't looking with much clarity. Generally when the market is obsessed with one place or one thing the real worries are 100% elsewhere.

What's my biggest concern? Valuation! And that's across the board for the most part. How much in the end will society put up with corporations, and an inevitably endless smaller segment of the population, having all the $?