Subject: Re: DG on sale today
ajm, thanks for the clarification and the additional thoughts. No issues at all on not expanding earlier. This is an enriching discussion for me as it has compelled me to dig deeper into DG's numbers. I hope Jim can also chime in on the issue of whether DG's debt is dangerous (if he has the time), but I provide some figures below.

I'm not worried that they will be insolvent, but I'm worried about the impact of reduced cash flow and EPS on valuation.

As far as valuation is concerned, their median P/E in the last 10 years is 18 and the range during that period is 17.1 to 22.2 (average annual P/E). The current P/E is around 15ish, which is significantly lower than the lower bound of the range.

<em> DG, at least, seemed pretty levered already .</em>
Their debt is as follows:

Total Debt $7009 mill. Due in 5 Yrs $2458 mill.
LT Debt $7009 mill. LT Interest $211 mill.

Their working capital last year (2022) was $1.7 billion (for a single year). That, coupled with the cash flow I mentioned in my previous post should comfortably allow them to service their debt for the next 5 years ($2.458 billion). Let me know if you disagree as I am also trying to figure this part out.

<em> BRK also doesn't directly hold DG or DLTR, currently, either (to my knowledge).</em>

I don't think one should use Berkshire's ownership as a criterion to purchase or sell stocks. BRK also does not own Google but some investors I really admire (including Li Lu and of course, our own Jim 😊) seem to have a significant allocation to Google. Besides, as has been discussed here before, Charlie Munger has said that "Google has a huge new moat. In fact I've probably never seen such a wide moat. Their moat is filled with sharks.' Still BRK owns no Google.