Subject: Re: OT: HSY at $188.54?
And how do you think about valuation in light of the trends?

It is not conventionally cheap. Yahoo reports a trailing P/E of 20.5 and a forward P/E of 18.8.
But it is way cheaper than it has historically been, and I don't really see the business being any worse than it was in any scary way.

So...
If the market once again assigns them valuation levels in the historically usual range (a big if), then the return outlook is:
* a one-time price bounce (timing unknown, in the general vicinity of +22% if it went back to the old normal),
* plus the usual trend of growth in value per share (usually high single digits),
* plus the dividend yield.

Darker things to consider?
* Perhaps some of the recent excellent earnings are a result of price increases at rates that can't be sustained--don't extrapolate that bit. EPS up about 10%/year in the last 5-10 years, but sales per share up only 5%/year. Great results, but that gap can continue only so long.
* They have ~$4bn in debt. There is an interest bill for that, which I presume is rising. The debt level is not a problem, but the interest cost may be a small headwind for net earnings.

Jim