Subject: 2nd order not small either?
deep apologies for posting actual macro here.
was thinking about largest 2nd- order impact that could affect american markets, and thus global.

aside from japan (also not off the hook), the middle east holds some of the highest concentration of wealth in american assets.
at some point, probably not just after trump declares victory again, they will have to cough up to pay\replace damaged infrastructure (ironically, to a lot of american companies like chart industries).
and when they do that, it will be via some liquidation of things like american equity holdings...much less so bonds.
and it will turn out that the ROI on all the trump bribes will have a deeply negative IRR for decades.

i wondered if this would be enough to move the stock market...or at least trigger significant momentum for a major slide.

amazingly, i could not find a tracker for total\durable damage. even just the fossil fuel related targets.
the most expensive regionally-owned targets (desalination, nuclear, data centers\gpu warehouses) seem to have been magically avoided (and trump properties).
[i found only 3 amazon-owned data centers hit, and minor damage to salination plant]

this tracker is one the better ones, showing more than american taxpayers costs for the military.

https://gulfwartracker.com/