Subject: Re: Frank Luntz- on tonights Biden interview,
You're right. I should make a prediction there as well.

The backbiting talk stops in the next week or so with people lining up firmly behind him and Biden stays in: He will win the popular vote. It's a coin toss on the EC.

The backbiting continues for more than a month and Biden stays in: Popular vote about 50/50, but he'll lose the EC.

Thanks. This is, I think, the core disagreement. For me, whether Biden does well or not if he stays in is not a function of whether the backbiting talk stops. It depends on whether he actually is in as bad of shape as he appeared last Thursday.

If he isn't in bad shape - if he genuinely is in much better condition than reports indicate - then he's got a shot at winning. Not a great shot, because that debate performance was as destructive as a photo of Mike Dukakis in a tank. But then the campaign could just put him out there more, silence the concerns, and he can just run to the end.

If he is in bad shape, he's going to lose and lose badly whether the backbiting stops or not.

That's why everyone in the Democratic party is so rattled by this. Their fortunes rest on Joe Biden's condition, and they don't believe that he or his inner circle is being forthright about that condition. And all of the indirect information about his condition points to Biden being in bad shape, not good shape.