Subject: Re: Grantham: In which stage are we?
First, monetary tightening is no fun, but it tends to work--after a lag.

Anecdotally from my day job, it does appear to be working. In the last two months of 2022 the consumer sales side of the large manufacturer I work for was off 30-40% year over year. This side of the business is highly correlated to new housing starts and the drop off was expected.

Our lending costs peaked in November and have come down slightly again going into January. Consumer purchases on revolving credit are holding up better than asset backed lending on the larger ticket items as rates rise. No real concerns yet on past due increases.

Our business lending side remains strong as customers there are still taking delivery of purchases committed to up to 18mo ago and delayed due to supply chain bottlenecks that continue to be persistent. Credit quality on the business side remains at all time highs. This side of the house will remain strong into 2024 due to back log alone.

One thing I will recommend, don't simply look at revenue growth as things are slowing, watch the unit volumes. I can only speak for what I see in our business but our price increases have been so dramatic that the top line increases are masking about half of the unit volume declines in some cases. Something to watch anyway.

Jeff