Subject: Re: OT: Bitcoin FOMO
OT ramble - do not read

Put it this way. If Berkshire Hathaway ever bought a single unit of crypto, I would sell every single share I own.

I consider crypto to be the most significant bubble since tulip mania. However, it does look like it will continue to go up and up, as more and more legitimate financial institutions increasingly support and now potential for US political support.

We have all heard the bull case. But the reality is crypto is being bought because it’s going up and people love volatility and get rich quick endorphins. It’s a paradise for helpers and crooks. That combination of the obvious wild speculation, combined with the cynical promotion and fraud is not something I would ever consider investing in. I don’t care if it’s going up. I don’t want to own something that can become a zero over night.

I saw an article today that said Saylor said buy this crypto before it goes up 16,939%. Not sure if he actually said that. But he is saying bitcoin is going to $1m per coin. If it was going to 10x from hear, why is he letting us in on this incredible deal? Would he not just keep quiet about it and buy it all for himself? Maybe he is just a really nice guy who is just helping strangers get rich.

Everyone here knows what integrity looks and sounds like having observed Buffett and Munger for decades. I submit that everyone involved in crypto in any way is one of the following: a cynical fraudsters; a momentum speculator; an employee of a financial institution that is skimming profits and has zero care for their customers; a politicians that would do anything for personal or political gain; low income individuals that see it as a way to get rich quick; blockchain advocates that refuse to acknowledge the flaws in crypto (such as environmental, potentially undermining the democracy by threatening government institutions and their currency); sophisticated investors that have taken leave of their senses.

I do acknowledge my absolute loathing of crypto is somewhat emotional and related to my chimp brain, reacting to missing out on the spectacular gains that have been made and will probably continue to be made by people other than me. However, I refuse to participate in something that on paper is so clearly ridiculous and awful.

Even as a spectator, I would be so concerned about the factors driving it higher will eventually go into reverse and when that happens the spectacular gains become even more spectacular and permanent losses.

Buffett is smarter than almost everyone on capital allocation and his view is, he quite literally wouldn’t pay $1 for all the bitcoin because he would have to find someone to sell it to.

And that’s the rub and it’s consistent with what is happening. If bitcoin is so great, why do the whales like Microstrategy have to keep buying it on an industrial scale to drive the price up. Why are promoters advertising so hard to pull in new buyers? If bitcoin had intrinsic value, these whales would be able to find buyers. They can’t. Their holdings keep rising. Maybe they will eventually own it all some day.

I bet we will eventually find out that the people behind the promotions and frauds have been quietly getting out and getting into USD and productive assets. And that is were the retail buyers come in. That’s how pyramid schemes work. I read that Saylor has been selling his personal shares in Microstrstegy. Shouldn’t that be a concern. He is promoting something to you and selling it himself!

Unfortunately for those who are disgusted by bitcoin there is a long list buyers, so this may continue for some time. I for one will not be telling my grandchildren in the distant future that I once owned a digital currency that could’ve bought 10 houses, which subsequently went to zero. Nor will I be telling my grandchildren that I made millions by speculating and gambling and got out just before the bust.

The dot com bubble was bad and pulled in a lot of people, many that were professional people working in finance that should have known better. But this crypto bubble is completely off the charts. We have never seen anything like it in our lifetimes.

No, it’s not for me.