Subject: Re: OT: Are we in a recession? Is one coming?
The reality is that we are very likely already in a recession.

Maybe, maybe not.

VCI is a way of identifying that reality in a more timely fashion.

The problem is that the VCI uses the labor force participation rate. It normally changes slowly, but with the large changes in immigration and emigration over the past year it is hard to know how to correct for them.

DB2