Subject: Re: Latest from Howard Marks
I posted a link to the Howard Marks memo at Bogleheads, with this quote:

The graph, from J.P. Morgan Asset Management, has a square for each month from 1988 through late 2014, meaning there are just short of 324 monthly observations (27 years x 12). Each square shows the forward p/e ratio on the S&P 500 at the time and the annualized return over the subsequent ten years. The graph gives rise to some important observations:

There’s a strong relationship between starting valuations and subsequent annualized ten-year returns. Higher starting valuations consistently lead to lower returns, and vice versa. There are minor variations in the observations, but no serious exceptions.

Today’s p/e ratio is clearly well into the top decile of observations.

In that 27-year period, when people bought the S&P at p/e ratios in line with today’s multiple of 22, they always earned ten-year returns between plus 2% and minus 2%..

I thought a lot of S&P500 index fund investors might find it interesting. The thread was closed by the moderator as being a "Non-actionable (Trolling) Topic" after a few responses, mainly positive.

Interestingly, a thread posted by RationalWalk titled "Shiller PE now near 39 - 2nd highest ever" ran to 21 pages and is still open.

https://www.bogleheads.org/for...

Must be me ;-)