Subject: Re: Minor Major Market Bottom Indicator
And Claude's comment on the signal as it stands:

From the historical data at threshold 88:

Cluster Date Peak Strength Forward 1yr
Weakest signals
2002-07-22 Jul 2002 96 +23%
2018-10-24 Oct 2018 99 +16%
2015-09-28 Sep 2015 99 +17%
Strongest signals
2008-10-06 Oct 2008 100 +3%
2011-08-08 Aug 2011 100 +28%
2020-03-16 Mar 2020 100 +68%
The strength range for actual signals is 88-100. But once you're above 88, the strength number doesn't tell you much about forward returns — the weakest signal (96) and strongest (100) both worked. What matters is that the signal fires at all.

Today at 81 you'd need roughly:

New lows jumping from 5 to 15-20+ (out of 100)
VIX spiking from 24 to 30+
Volume surging on those new-low stocks
That's a meaningful selloff from here, not a normal down day.