Subject: Re: The Berkshire Problem
I'm in the UK and I've had investments in, and invested more, in the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 in the past decade or more. These investments have done worse than some things, and better than others. But the reason I'm content with them is that they seemed undervalued when I bought them, so hopefully fairly valued even if I was mistaken. The reasonable valuation makes it easier to expect an ok outcome even in "bad" circumstances, and perhaps a good outcome if things turn out well ... ;-)
The FTSE 100 suffers a bit from the same malaise as the Canadian market: heavily concentrated in a couple of sectors. As those go, so go your returns.
The FTSE 250 is much more diversified, for sure, so among other things it's easy to value.
It's a shame it's over 23% financials and under 1.2% technology. I guess you can always add more "zippy" tech stuff yourself.
FWIW, here is a six month old glance at valuation for the FTSE 250.
https://www.ukdividendstocks.c...
CAPE is a poor valuation metric for small or unbalanced markets, but the FTSE 250 doesn't really suffer from those.
The write-up is half a year old, but the index has gone roughly nowhere this year, so the numbers are just a pinch more attractive now.
Bottom line: if the economy experiences some decent mean reversion, it's probably a pretty good buy for an index.
The main reason I don't invest in the UK market that much is, well, capitalists in the US just seem to do better on average over time.
If you're hunting for diamonds, it's better to be searching near diamond mines.
And of course the UK economy is suffering from rather more than the usual number of bumps in the road lately. Like much of the world's investors, "wait and see" is about the most bullish stance you'll find on the UK market these days.
Speaking of UK headwinds:
Oddly enough, the thing about the big one-time drop in the pound since the Brexit vote is so overdone that it rather annoys me.
The writers never seem to notice that the pound had just had a big run-up prior to that in 2014 and 2015.
On a trade weighted basis, it's about the same remarkably steady level it was before that.
The average level since the Brexit drop is a whopping 2.7% below the average 2009-2013 inclusive, before the run up. This is newsworthy?
The latest figure is actually up 1% from the average in that stretch.
The big one-time lasting step drop was actually in 2008 due to the credit crunch, about -19% comparing average in the years before to the years after.
Jim