Subject: hoisington 2026 april
highly reputable source has one of their most lively posts in long time.
(usually limited to fwd looking interest rate changes)

a. best fed strategy in gop chaos is 100% absolutely no change to rates and even less guidance

b. econ effects from supply energy shocks since 1973

4/4, recession within 11 months.
4/4, significant s&p500 bear mkt, -20% to -60% decline. global mkt also, but did ~10% better per shock.

(russian invasion event excluded due to outsized covid stim impulse continued impact...easing was not retrospective to invasion)