Subject: Re: Value, when to buy
Here is yet another way of showing forward return versus starting P/IV estimate (or metric related to IV).

https://drive.google.com/open?...

Sorry, Google keeps using a version of the graph before I corrected some formatting, but I think it's legible. The graph shows the forward, 3-year, nominal, annualized returns starting from Dec 31st 1999. The estimated P/IV comes from the weighing machine model. The returns are:

starting P/IV estimate, mean return
0.7, 18%
1.0, 11%
1.5, 0%

Today the estimated P/IV is 0.98.

Just FWIW.