Subject: Re: Hegseth's comments / global blockade
Sure - you can always choose to abandon your initial strategic goals and take whatever you can get, or just negotiate the terms where you cut and run. But that's hardly a masterstroke of success.

Did Nixon get us into Vietnam? No, he campaigned on ending the war. His sole goal was to do that. At any rate, that's not the point.
Nixon and Kissinger played a masterful game of good cop (Kissinger)/bad cop (Nixon). When the Vietnamese would stall, Nixon would order up more B-52 raids and Kissinger would tell them that Nixon was nuts and that it would be better to make a deal with him.

Trump is doing the same exact thing, albeit with a few twists. Pity that people underestimate him and his team so much they can't see the obvious but that's a 'them' problem.

But that doesn't really help us achieve our strategic goals. In war, it is possible for both sides to lose, and lose badly - so simply pointing out that Iran is suffering does not in any way mean we are moving to achieve our goals.

The Gulf states are losing money. Have you asked yourself why they're telling us to finish Iran off? Maybe you should consider that some are willing to endure short term pain for long term benefits.

They do control the strait. The mines weren't what stopped ships from going through - it was land-based attacks that made it too risky for them to proceed. That threat is still there. Traffic through the strait is still a tiny fraction of what it was before, and is still limited to vessels that are allies of Iran.

Ah. How many ships have been hit? Versus how many aren't willing to risk it? Two different things, and implies their "Control" may be more psychological than physical.

No one has criticized or question our ability to achieve our tactical objectives. The U.S. military has performed flawlessly. All of our critiques are pointing out that achieving our tactical objectives will not achieve our strategic objectives.

This wasn't the point I was making. We got a cease-fire on our timeline, not theirs. That's what's being missed. Those ships shooting missiles need time to reload, make repairs and let the crew rest. Aircraft need maintenance and pilots need some downtime after the tempo they were put through. We're getting that now. Stuff is being flown in. Lessons are being absorbed. Tactics analyzed. More intelligence being collected.

All that stuff that Hegseth was talking about.

Then why didn't we blockade the strait at the beginning of the war? Why did we temporarily lift sanctions on Iranian oil?

Because their Navy, Air Force, missiles and drone capability needed to be addressed first. The Joe Biden model was to paint big red bullseyes on our ships and steam them into the middle of the Houthis' shooting gallery in the Red Sea. I can't for the life of me fathom why somebody didn't raise more of a stink over the stupidity of that approach.

As to your second question, Trump is threading the needle on world energy prices. He said words to the effect today that "if you had told him the price of oil would only be $92 buck a barrel 5 weeks in, I'd have been very happy with that". And he's right. All the doom and gloom projections were for oil at $150 a barrel and higher. Instead, what's happening? Global energy markets are shifting.

They're heading to the U.S., and the implications are that domestic energy prices will track global energy prices - vastly higher than they were before the war, imposing a major drag on the U.S. economy and exposing us to the risk of recession and shortages as everyone else in the world if an accommodation with Iran isn't reached soon.

You're 1/3rd right. Yes, they're heading to the US to fill up. Which means more American oil gets to market to relieve the worldwide supply shortage.
'Imposing a drag on the US economy'? Hardly. US refineries are going to need to ramp up capacity as well which means more jobs and more economic activity, not less.

Then there's Venezuela. You were adamant that nobody would step forward and spend a single dime bringing their production back up. How do you feel about that prediction now?

BTW. Ursula von der Leyen is busy telling europeans to turn the lights off at night and not to drive anywhere. Would you rather have their energy position or ours?