Subject: Re: Attack on Iran

But it’s really too early to say how long the disruptions will last and how they will affect the world economy and markets. Because it’s a weekend the markets are closed but there’s still a pop in the price of oil and flight-to-safety in Treasuries and gold.

The intent appears to be a bombing campaign, only. There are no more than a handful of US troops in theater, and Iran has about three times the population of Iraq.

Closest analog that comes to mind is Libya, where the EU bombing campaign allowed all the local poisons to break out, pitching the country into chaos, and sharply curtailing oil production for several years.

The Libyan campaign was in 2011

Crude Oil Production for Libya

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/se...

The Helots are out in force this afternoon:

US strikes in Iran could see oil prices jump $10 to $20 or more with no deescalation, Trump says Khamenei is dead

Futures on Brent crude (BZ=F), the international pricing benchmark, had jumped by roughly 2.9% to close above $72.80 on Friday, while those on US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude (CL=F) had moved up by a slightly smaller 2.8% to trade above $67 by Friday's close.

Without signs of deescalation over the weekend, prices could surge upward by as much as $10 to $20 per barrel when the market reopens Sunday night, Jorge León, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, told Yahoo Finance.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news...

Steve....long big oil