Subject: Re: Is NATO figuring it out?
Iran would love to have a nuclear weapon, if it would just end there. But it wouldn't. Obtaining a nuclear weapon brings its own set of problems, not least that you would see the other countries in the Gulf all rush to obtain nukes of their own. Iran wants a nuclear weapon to improve their security position and their ability to threaten other countries; but they also want the other countries in the region to not have a nuke (because that degrades their security position and their ability to threaten other countries). Two different wants. Both are real wants - but they conflict, because fulfilling one "want" brings unavoidable consequences.


No, this is missing some things. First off, the US nuclear umbrella protects the Gulf States and most especially the ones that have US bases or other assets stationed there.

Secondly, what you're missing is that Iran wants the Untouchability Factor that being nuclear-armed gives them - allows them to make all sorts of mischief under the shadow of a mushroom cloud going off someplace. As I said further, all they need to do is threaten to drive a speedboat in the middle of the strait loaded with their nuke and container/tanker travel grinds to a halt.

The Iranian regime has had factions with different positions on which is the better strategy. There have been those who advocated racing to an actual bomb, even though that would cause the rest of the region to proliferate. And there have been those who argued that Iran was actually better off being just below breakout, which gives them more room to maneuver than if they were one nuclear power among six or seven - and that they could still be free from the risk of anyone actually going to war against them.

There are no "factions" in Iran. What you describe here is merely the Persian version of strategic ambiguity: Do they have one or not? Are they pursuing x or y or not? Etc.

It's certainly made it more likely that Iran will consider holding the strait hostage more likely, because....well, it's now happened, when they've never done that before during peacetime (however strained the peace), and it looks like they're far more likely to do it during peacetime once Epic Fury is over. But it's also made it more likely that once the bombs stop dropping, they'll just bite hard and swallow and race to an actual weapon, rather than staying at the 60% they've been at for the last many years.

What is "peacetime"? When one looks at this through the Iranian lens they've been at war with us for 50 years.