Subject: Re: "The Art of The Deal"
Trump to China: "OK, I've compromised. Now it's your turn."

Will it work? We'll see.

It might work. But this type of negotiation tactic is generally ineffective and often backfires. Trump has made several bold opening moves, but then quickly backed down--at least partially--without gaining any concessions in return. Sending unclear signals is a poor negotiating tactic. It also isn't clear what China (or any countries') concessions need to be. For example, tariffs on Canada are linked to fentanyl smuggling. So what specifically does Canada need to do in regards to fentanyl to get the tariffs lifted? It isn't clear, we haven't heard. And since other countries not linked to fentanyl also got hit with tariffs, a reasonable person would conclude tariffs don't have anything to do with fentanyl. The rates and exemptions seem to be changing weekly. Different administration officials are taking different negotiating positions. If we don't send clear signals what our position is, the other parties can't counter.

Another similar bad negotiating form is breaking trust. Once you break trust you can never really get it back. Saying untrue things like "the EU was designed to screw the US" will not improve Trump's position.

Professional negotiators seldom if ever start off with a big opener. It is called anchoring, and it makes it hard to move off of that position without losing face. Along those lines, a big opener can be seen as a threat or bullying. People don't like to be bullied and that often ends negotiations. In fact, China already said they won't be bullied, so it is unlikely we'll see anything fruitful in that regard for a while.

Another key to successful negotiations is keeping your emotions out of it. Trump said his recent tariff hikes on China were because he felt disrespected. That means he's being controlled by his emotions and not focused on getting to the outcome.

A great movie depicting high level negotiations is "Bridge of Spies" starring Tom Hanks. It is a true story. Hanks plays James Donovan, an American trying to negotiate the return of pilot Gary Powers from the Russians and a innocent American student swept up by the East Germans in exchange for a Russia spy. The Russians and East Germans don't want to work with each other, and definitely don't like Americans, and they make things exceptionally difficult for Donovan. But throughout he stays on message "your one guy for our two guys" and patiently keeps emphasizing that it is in all sides best interests to come to an agreement. Eventually, everyone agrees.