Subject: Re: OT: DEV ex US (IDEV ETF)
Earnings growth about 16% for S&P, US non-S&P, EM. About 12% for developed.
As Bogle said, (assuming constant P/E), your returns are earnings growth + dividends.

I would rephrase that to make it meaningful:

Recent past earnings growth about 16% for S&P, US non-S&P, EM. About 12% for developed.
As Bogle said, (assuming constant P/E), your returns are future earnings growth + dividends.

It's a very big difference. "Recent past" and "future" are very different in this case.
Over the long run, earnings growth in the S&P 500 will necessarily resemble US GDP growth pretty closely. US GDP is NOT going to grow at 16%/year. Since 1985 US GDP has risen nominal 4.99%/year = inflation + 2.59%/year.

Jim


PS
Slight improvement:
"...(assuming constant P/E), your real returns are future real earnings growth + the nominal dividend yield when you buy."
The non-obvious thing there is that dividends are not very cyclical so it's the initial yield that matters most, but they do rise with inflation so they are in effect already inflation-adjusted figures. Thus it counterintuitively makes most sense to add the inflation-adjusted annualized rate of price return to the nominal dividend yield.