Subject: War, currencies and jurisdictions
I value that there are many independent and diverse thinkers here. I am interested to know what others think about what occupies my mind more and more, the themes "War / Currencies / Jurisdictions". I do not label this post OT as itīs about investing (in Berkshire too).
I am scared. Scared about the scenario of war in Europe on a far wider scale than "only" Ukraine-Russia (but caused by it) becoming ever more likely. I have that impression because living in Germany I am shocked about the development here: The formerly pacifist Green party is the greatest warmonger of all (I once voted for them, but when young we all make mistakes). They are for armament without any limitations. They paint a black-and-white picture of the Devil (Putin) versus the rest. Even being an IT guy I learned that nothing in life is 0 or 1, black or white. Diplomacy for them is no political means, itīs only about preparing for war.
And that is the stance of nearly all prominent political and media figures here in Germany - apart from a veteran politician like Juergen Todenhoefer, who remarkably commented "Todayīs generations donīt know what war really is; for them itīs abstract; they never experienced it". And not only in Germany, but thatīs the stance of Brussels/the EU commission, with only Italy and Spain not totally in line. You would be hard pressed to find members of the German government or the EU commission who utters words like "Diplomacy", "Talks", "Negotiating" etc. I always thought politics is the (dirty) business of compromising, of sacrificing this to get that etc. The business of diplomacy. Not any more.
The relevance for investments: As many others too this year I moved from the USD into other currencies. I intended to continue this, to further reduce my USD exposure in favor of EUR, GBP, NZD and AUD. My reason was optimizing returns in light of the USD eventually falling much further.
But I am about to change my mind, as I am seeing a potential for something far bigger than having sub-optimal returns: To loose my money. Not only because of the currencies, but even more so because of the jurisdictions in which those currencies would be held. What I am seeing here in Germany really scares me. And if the worst becomes reality I think it will happen here, in Europe.
Shortly ago Jim said
From a jurisdiction risk point of view, the US now clearly has the profile of an emerging market, without a doubt.
From a "War in Europe scenario" I see the US as a much safer place than having my money in German, French and Irish banks (European IBKR customers are customers of IBKR Ireland). Regarding moving money I am therefore currently only thinking about moving more to the other end of the world, to New Zealand. Not just because of currency diversification, but because of geography/jurisdiction, as those monies are held at a bank in NZ (where I once lived, am still every year for several months, and am tempted to move again for good).