Subject: Re: Let’s See If This Pans Out for Putin
Then you're sentencing the Ukrainians to more civilian casualties, more destruction of their infrastructure, more misery.

I'm not "sentencing" them to anything. They could always choose not to fight, if they wanted to. I'm merely saying that if they want to defend their country and get Russia out, it will not be quick. We will help them to fight, but we are not forcing them to fight.

Then you already know the answer. We disagree on the secondary sanctions. It's going to come down to how much skin in the game the West wants to have.

I think we're there. We'll give the Ukrainians as much weaponry and resources as they need to stay in the field, but there's too much of a risk of WWIII for NATO to send troops directly into battle. To increase the pressure on Russia, we'll need the cooperation of countries that are our allies but have a foot in both worlds (like Hungary) - but to get that cooperation, we're more likely to be successful with incentives than punishments.

You asked if the board was comfortable with NATO troops, but you never said whether you were comfortable with NATO troops. Are you?

Let's ask you a question: How many years do you think it would take at current course and speed for Russia to decide to withdraw?

I'd put the over-under at around 1.5 to 2 years. I've seen differing reports on how bad their financial situation is, complicated by the fact that they're not the most transparent. But it's bad. Russia's blown through most of its reserves and has incurred massive debt, as noted by Bloomberg:

Growth in the Russian economy is stalling. Oil revenues have slumped. The budget deficit has widened to the largest in more than three decades. Inflation and interest rates remain painfully high. Behind the walls of the country’s banks, some insiders are sounding alarms about a looming debt crisis.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news...

That's a big part of why Putin needed to go to Alaska to meet Trump. They're financing the war by leaning on domestic banks, and they're in real pain. Putin wasn't there to negotiate peace or a cease-fire - he really wanted the photo-op that comes with a summit to use for domestic propaganda purposes (being given a literal red carpet and a press conference was just a ridiculously foolish bonus on top of that!).

If you really want to understand the likely endgame, I suggest you read that article. Russia's teetering on the brink. They're likely to face a huge debt crisis and a major collapse of its government financing, together with a likely economic collapse, sometime within the next year or less. Putin rules the country with an iron grip. But history is replete with absolute monarchs and total despots who were brought to heel when they had to find ways to finance their expensive wars. That's where the uncertainty creeps in - Putin will run out of money to pay for the war, but he'll still have total control of Russia's government and political infrastructure. Those two forces - political strength vs. financial weakness - will collide. Ultimately finances will win - Putin can't keep fighting if he doesn't have the money to pay for it - but he can keep forcing the private sector to rack up debts for him for some amount of time.