Subject: Re: The Berkshire Problem
Deja Vu all over again. But well summarized by EVBigMacMeal.

I recall discussing this with a close friend and fellow BRK shareholder some years ago. We met because of a shared background - same birth state, university, and former employer. He is a retired senior tax attorney with a huge corporation. Not much has changed since our discussions.

The issue is basically what to do with BRk's cash flow.

There are still several private US companies that can each soak up a year of cash generation. But you've got to land one every year. Otherwise there are only two private US companies that can move the needle for BRK. These are Cargill and Mars.

And D&A apparently offset capex needs for most of our companies. BNSF may need more since real annual maintenance is larger than D&A - maybe $1 billion? BHE is largely self funding, and - being regulated - favors debt over being funded by BRK. Maybe in major acquisitions? Small bolt-ons for others? NetJets may be an exception, but I don't know how profitable they are. Wish this was disclosed.

So that leaves the stock market and buybacks. Dividends still are a tax problem for Buffett and many long term shareholders.

Buffett has fairly recently moved into the Japanese stock market. But, again, only soaking up part of annual cash flows. And our success in buying foreign private companies is limited. Only Iscar comes to mind, and they sought out Buffett, not vice-versa. Seems to be some combination of tax and inheritance problems, maybe government influences? I don't really understand this. Just know that little has happened. And Buffett has been trying for several years. The Iscar guy tried to help - but not much has happened.

Maybe the future is some mix of the following. Buybacks when below IV. Index funds - maybe even sectors - when attractive. Otherwise hold cash and play the cycle? Hope for another Apple opportunity, and being flexible enough to react? I recall Buffett talking about Google some years ago in terms of low capex, high profits, and growth. But apparently wasn't predicable enough.

I do think that self-imposed limitations on competing for acquisitions need to be relaxed. I'm still upset that we lost a $9 billion Oncor acquisition in Texas over $300 million. Will the board go along with this after Buffett?

OBviously I don't know what the future will bring. But I think BRK will have to be more flexible in finding homes for its cash flow. It is our major future issue - more so than succession - in my opinion.