Subject: Re: Asking for each of your takes

At this rate, Ford is going to run out of models to cut.

Ford breaks down it's margin into three segments. "Ford Blue" is ICE consumer vehicles, "Ford Pro" is commercial vehicles, "Ford Model e" is EVs.

Margins for Q2, 2025:


Segment Performance in Q2 2025

Ford Pro (Commercial Vehicles): This segment was the strongest performer, generating $2.3 billion in EBIT with a 12.3% margin.

Ford Blue (Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles): This traditional business contributed $0.7 billion in EBIT with a modest 2.6% margin.

Ford Model e (Electric Vehicles): The electric vehicle division continued to face losses, reporting a negative EBIT of $1.3 billion, but its margin improved to -56.4% from previous quarters

I'll put on my MBA hat (scrunch), clearly, the thing to do is to incrementally phase out all ICE consumer vehicles, walking away from millions of customers, and probably closing several plants, putting tens of thousands of people out of work, and build nothing but commercial vehicles, because that maximizes margin. (removing MBA hat...splunk)

*****conspiracy theory follows. if you read it, don't complain you weren't warned, and don't waggle your finger at me!****

In the back of my mind is the thought that Ford, and several other automakers, looked at the ATP and GP (apparently 27.9% in 2018) Tesla used to report, and figured building EVs was easy money, so spent heavily, in pursuit of that fat margin. Then, Tesla started cutting prices, and accepting lower margins (17.9% in 2024) and the money didn't look so easy, given the investment required.

Ford started building three battery plants, and a greenfield EV F-150 plant in 2021. Production to start in 2025. In August of last year, Ford walked back that schedule. A few weeks ago, Ford walked back that schedule some more.

Ford delays electric pickup, van to 2028 as it chases smaller, affordable options

https://www.reuters.com/busine...

What makes 2028 so special? (big conspiracy theory follows)...Farley turns 65 in 2027, June 10, to be precise. He could pack up the Millions he has made off of Ford, and retire, at that time. So he has dragged out the EV program just long enough for whether to sink more money into it, or write off the Billions already spent, will be the next guy's problem.

Farley has been claiming genius foresight in not having Lincoln go heavy for EVs.

Lincoln Was Ready To Make A Huge Electric Mistake, Until One Man Stopped It

https://carbuzz.com/ford-ceo-c...

So, with Farley backpedaling on EVs like crazy, what is the deal with the dog and pony show about a midsize EV pickup, a few days ago? That pickup is supposed to be built at Lousiville Assembly, where the Escape has been built. The Escape is being dropped at the end of this year, to make room for the EV truck. (more conspiracy theory) Given that Farley said, two years ago, he wants to abandon the two row SUV market, and only build bigger, more expensive, cars, the "affordable EV pickup" narrative runs counter to everything else he is saying and doing. I propose the pickup is vaporware, whose only function is to provide political cover for dropping the Escape, closing another US plant, and putting over 2000 Americans out of work, to juice his ATP and GP. Without the EV pickup hype, closing the plant and laying everyone off would put Ford near the "Drop Dead!!" end of Trump's loyalty rankings, because autoworkers are a significant part of his base. (see? I warned you it was a conspiracy theory)

If you read all the way through, with all the warnings, don't you DARE waggle your finger at me! :^)

Steve