Subject: Re: Latest from Howard Marks
Mungofitch wrote:

A high valuation level is a great example of being "approximately right", not a market forecast.

Truly, I do understand this. What I am trying to understand is why something that is only expected to be approximately right over indefinite but long periods of time is of serious interest. I am not managing a university endowment. My second twenty-year window as a serious investor is about half over, and most of us only get two.

Perhaps it is the case that valuation offers more realistic, worthwhile advantages to people who invest in individual stocks (BRK vs TSLA), rather than in index ETFs? For myself, things like your DBE ("no new highs lately") indicator have proven far more useful.

Baltassaar