Subject: Re: Iran - The Difference in Assessment
It's still early....but we've already fired our main shot. The Iranian regime's plans for continuity and maintaining control were severely tested, as we eliminated a lot of their leadership in the first few days. And they passed that test.

It took 7 months and "main shot" implies only doing 1 thing, which isn't accurate. There are several "shots" being taken.

What does seem to be on offer appears to be at most: i) more aerial power; ii) limited and discrete "expeditionary force" boots on the ground; and iii) perhaps supporting other people's boots on the ground (like the Kurds). It's not literally impossible for those things to work, but they're pretty unlikely. We're not going to be able to bomb our way out of this situation.

That's certainly one take.